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Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
300 PM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023
 
Lidia has become a little better organized this afternoon.  
Satellite images indicate that deep convection has been increasing 
and gradually becoming more symmetric.  However, microwave data 
show that the low- and mid-level centers are still not well aligned, 
and there is a notable southwest tilt with height.  The initial 
intensity is again held at 60 kt, near the low end of the satellite 
estimates, but if the trends continue, Lidia could become a 
hurricane tonight.
 
The storm has now turned northward at 6 kt.  A faster motion to the
northeast and east-northeast is expected on Monday and Tuesday as a
mid- to upper-level trough approaches the system.  There has not
been any significant change with the new models runs, with the GFS
remaining the fastest solution and the ECMWF the slowest.  The NHC
track forecast has again been nudged northward this cycle toward
the latest consensus aids.  Based on the latest guidance, Lidia will
likely make landfall in west-central Mexico late Tuesday.
 
Lidia could strengthen a little tonight or early Monday, but more
notable intensification seems likely late Monday and Tuesday in
part due to a favorable trough interaction while Lidia moves over
SSTs near 30 C.  The models have trended higher this cycle and the
NHC intensity forecast has followed suit, and is in line with the
HCCA and IVCN models.  Rapid weakening is expected after landfall
and Lidia will likely dissipate over central Mexico in a few days.

Based on the forecast and the track uncertainty, the government of 
Mexico has issued Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches for portions 
of west-central Mexico.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Lidia is expected to strengthen before it reaches west-central
Mexico, and hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible in 
the watch areas beginning Tuesday.
 
2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, western
portions of the state of Nayarit and coastal portions of Jalisco
in southwest Mexico.
 
3. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next few days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 17.6N 112.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 18.3N 112.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 18.9N 111.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 19.7N 109.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 20.9N 107.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 22.6N 104.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 72H  11/1800Z 24.5N 102.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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