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Tropical Storm Max Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162023
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023
 
Tropical Depression Sixteen-E has strengthened into Tropical Storm 
Max. Visible and infrared satellite imagery this evening indicates 
that the system maintains a well-defined center, which was further 
confirmed by recent AMSR-2 and SSMIS microwave passes. 
Additionally, deep convection, which was only loosely organized 
over a large area for most of the day, has increased in intensity 
tonight in a concentrated area to the southwest of the center. 
Subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased, and 
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS also support an increase in 
intensity since the prior advisory. Thus, the initial intensity for 
this advisory is set at 35 kt. 

Max is continuing to move north-northwestward at 340/5 kt. The 
storm is expected to gradually turn northward and eventually 
north-northeastward tonight and tomorrow. The primary steering 
influences are a mid-level ridge over the Caribbean Sea to the 
storm's east, and Tropical Storm Lidia to its west. Max is expected 
to make landfall in the next 24 h or so, although some uncertainty 
remains in the exact timing and location, with global models 
differing in the forward speed. Regardless of the exact timing and 
landfall location, tropical storm impacts are expected to occur far 
from the landfall location. The current NHC forecast represents a 
blend of the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids, and it is slightly west 
of the prior forecast.

The current intensity forecast indicates intensification prior to 
landfall in Mexico. Some of the dynamical models indicate 
intensification in the next 12-24 h, but with limited time 
before landfall and moderate easterly wind shear that will persist 
through tomorrow, the system is expected to remain a tropical 
storm at landfall. After landfall, Max is forecast to weaken rapidly 
as it interacts with the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico. 
However, this interaction of the storm's circulation with the 
terrain is likely to result in heavy rainfall as the storm 
dissipates and its remnants continue moving inland on Tuesday. The 
NHC intensity forecast is similar to the prior forecast and is on 
the high end of the guidance envelope. 
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Max is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to portions 
of the southern coast of Mexico on Monday where a Tropical Storm
Warning remains in effect.
 
2. Heavy rains from this system will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the states of Guerrero, Michoacan and coastal sections of
western Oaxaca.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 16.3N 101.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 17.0N 102.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 17.8N 101.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 18.6N 101.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 48H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Brown
 
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