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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023
 
The very busy October in the eastern Pacific continues this 
afternoon.  Satellite images indicate that Invest 92E has re-formed 
a large central dense overcast near the center with curved banding 
features.  Unlike yesterday, however, the low-level circulation has 
become better defined, as indicated by ASCAT-B scatterometer 
ambiguities from 1520Z, with a small closed low shown. With Dvorak 
estimates of T2.0 from TAFB, this is indicative of organized deep 
convection, and thus this system has become a tropical depression.  
The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, in accordance with the non 
rain-inflated scatterometer max winds of about that value.

There's been little net motion with this system during the last day 
or so, and none is really expected during the next day or so with 
light steering currents.  A mid- to upper-level trough over the 
northwestern Caribbean early next week is expected to draw the 
depression northeastward towards Central America.  The big question 
is how close the system gets to land before ridging rebuilds after 
the trough departs the region.  Most of the global models move the 
system quite close to Guatemala or El Salvador before being shunted 
west-southwestward away from land, so this will be the official 
forecast.  This is a very uncertain forecast as only a one or two kt 
speed difference during the next few days will have large 
ramifications for any landfall chances.

The depression should be over warm waters in light or moderate shear 
for the next few days.  Most of the guidance show at least gradual 
intensification in this pattern for 2-3 days, and the NHC intensity 
forecast follows that trend, on the high side of the guidance 
envelope.  Around 72 h and beyond, a mix of land interaction and a 
sharp increase in shear should cause weakening, and this is shown 
below.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 10.5N  92.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 10.7N  92.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 10.9N  92.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 11.1N  92.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 11.6N  91.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  31/0600Z 12.3N  90.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z 13.0N  89.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 11.3N  90.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  02/1800Z  9.5N  94.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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