ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 300 AM MDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Deep convection has continued to pulse near and to the east of the center of Pilar overnight. There were no complete ASCAT passes over the storm tonight, but a partial ASCAT-C pass suggests the strongest winds remain confined to the northern semicircle. The various satellite intensity estimates range from 30-44 kt, and the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. Despite moving over warm waters in a weak to moderate westerly shear environment, the small storm has struggled to sustain convection at times during the past couple of days due to the negative effects of dry air. In the near term, GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggest this trend could continue. The upper-level environment is forecast to become more diffluent in 24-36 h, and the GFS along with some of the regional models show strengthening could occur during this period. However, there are also indications that mid-level shear will increase around the same time, which would likely result in additional bouts of dry air intrusions. While small intensity fluctuations seem possible during the next couple of days, the NHC forecast follows the corrected consensus (HCCA) aid and shows no change in strength through the weekend. Weakening is expected beginning Monday as Pilar moves into a drier and strongly sheared environment. Similar to the previous prediction, this forecast shows degeneration into a remnant low by 72 h and dissipation by day 5. A mid-level ridge to the north of Pilar is steering the storm quickly westward (265 degrees/14 kt). This steering ridge is forecast to become eroded by a mid-level trough near the Baja California peninsula over the weekend. This should cause Pilar to gradually slow down and gain some latitude, with a turn toward the west-northwest and northwest forecast early next week. There is large spread in the track guidance envelope beyond 24 h, with the differences likely related to the strength and vertical depth of the cyclone. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and remains close to HCCA, which falls between the stronger (weaker) models on the right (left) side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 9.8N 107.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 9.8N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 10.1N 111.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 10.6N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 11.3N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 11.9N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 12.7N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z 14.5N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN