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Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023
200 AM MST Sun Nov 05 2023

Pilar hasn't changed much in in organization over the past several 
hours.  The storm continues to have some convective banding 
features along with a somewhat ragged-looking Central Dense 
Overcast.  Cloud tops continue to be quite cold, at -70 deg C or 
colder, and the upper-level outflow pattern also remains fairly 
well defined.  The current intensity estimate is held at 45 kt in 
agreement with subjective Dvorak values from TAFB and SAB, as well 
as objective AI-ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS.  ASCAT scatterometer 
data from a few hours ago suggest that this estimate may be a bit 
generous, since that instrument showed somewhat lower wind speeds.  
However it is assumed that there was some undersampling by ASCAT of 
the maximum winds in this small tropical cyclone.

Vertical wind shear over the cyclone is expected to remain fairly 
low today, and this along with a warm ocean could allow for a 
little more short-term strengthening.  In 24 hours and beyond, 
however, the dynamical guidance shows a substantial increase in 
shear as Pilar begins to encounter strong southwesterly flow 
associated with a broad upper-level trough to its northwest.  This 
increased shear should cause weakening, and the system is 
likely to be reduced to a remnant low pressure area in 2 to 3 
days, or possibly sooner.  The official intensity forecast is 
similar to the previous one and is also close to the model 
consensus.

A westward motion continues for now, at a slower forward speed of 
around 10 kt.  Over the next day or so, the mid-level ridge to the 
north of Pilar is forecast to weaken due to the influence of a low 
just to the west of the Baja California peninsula.  As a result, 
the system is likely to turn west-northwestward to northwestward 
during the next 24 hours or so.  The official forecast track is 
somewhat to the right of the previous NHC prediction, but is still 
near the southern side of the guidance suite.  This is fairly close 
to the latest simple and corrected dynamical model consensus 
tracks. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 10.6N 112.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 11.0N 113.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 11.6N 114.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 12.5N 115.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 13.8N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  07/1800Z 15.2N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0600Z 16.5N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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