ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023 800 AM PDT Thu Nov 23 2023 The area of low pressure (94E) that NHC has been monitoring has now become a tropical depression over the central East Pacific basin. Satellite images show that deep convection has been persistent and consolidating near the low-level center. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T2.5 and T1.5, respectively. Using a blend of these estimates the initial intensity is set to 30 kt for this advisory. The depression is drifting west-northwestward around 2 kt. A continued slow northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves in the light steering flow between a ridge to its northeast and a trough to its northwest. The model guidance is in fairly good agreement with the system gradually moving poleward, and the NHC track forecast is near the various consensus aids. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. However, beyond that time, an increase in vertical wind shear and dry air should cause weakening. Simulated satellite from the ECMWF and GFS show that the system will likely struggle to produce organized deep convection by 72 hours, and therefore the official forecast depicts the system becoming a remnant low at that time. Most models show the system dissipating and opening into a trough by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the HCCA corrected consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 11.9N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 12.3N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 13.2N 122.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 14.0N 122.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 14.9N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 15.6N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 16.2N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z 17.0N 122.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN