ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023 ...HILARY CONTINUES STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 107.8W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern portion of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lazaro southward on the west coast and Los Barriles southward on the east coast. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito on the west coast. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lazaro southward * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito * North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and along the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Hilary. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for a portion of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 107.8 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is expected Friday morning, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest and north on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will approach the Baja California peninsula over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Hilary could become a major hurricane later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night. Flash flooding, locally significant, will be possible. Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the Southwestern United States from Friday through early next week, peaking on Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts in excess of 8 inches, will be possible across portions of southern California and southern Nevada. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by late Friday, and are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN