ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023 ...LIDIA FORECAST TO STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 112.8W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for Las Islas Marias and for the coast of west-central Mexico from Playa Perula to Mazatlan. The government of Mexico has also issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya and from Manzanillo to Playa Perula SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias * Playa Perula to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya * Manzanillo to Playa Perula A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 112.8 West. Lidia is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Lidia is expected to be a hurricane before it approaches the coast of west-central Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch areas beginning Tuesday. RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, western portions of the state of Nayarit and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in southwest Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN