ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Lidia Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 ...LIDIA STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 109.2W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Manzanillo to Playa Perula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias * Playa Perula to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Escuinapa to Mazatlan * Manzanillo to Playa Perula A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Playa Perula A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lidia was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 109.2 West. Lidia is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster east-northeast motion is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach the west-central coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area this afternoon and move inland over west-central Mexico late this evening or tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast today as Lidia approaches the west-central coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected after Lidia moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area later this afternoon. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area later this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN