ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2023 ...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 100.1W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of southern Mexico from Acapulco westward to Punta San Telmo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Acapulco to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 100.1 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue overnight. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Sunday and continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance is forecast to approach the coast of southern Mexico within the watch area on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression early Sunday, and a tropical storm late Sunday or Sunday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the disturbance can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the states of Guerrero and Michoacán in southwest Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN