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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Max Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162023
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023
 
...MAX CLOSING IN ON THE MEXICAN COASTLINE...
...LIKELY TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING LATER TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 101.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the
next 12 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Max was 
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 101.2 West. Max is 
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this 
motion is expected to continue through tomorrow.  On the forecast 
track, Max should make landfall by this afternoon within the warning 
area, then move farther inland over southern Mexico.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Max could intensify up until it makes landfall this afternoon, with 
rapid weakening expected afterwards. Max should dissipate over 
Mexico on Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) 
from the center. In the past few hours, a surface observing station 
at Puerto Vicente Guerrero reported a wind gust of 41 mph        
(65 km/h). 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). A 
surface observing station at Puerto Vicente Guerrero recent reported 
a minimum surface pressure of 1000 mb (29.53 inches). 
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Max can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Max is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday across the
states of Guerrero and Michoacan. These rains will likely produce
flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of
higher terrain near the coast.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area
and expected to overspread the warning area throughout the day.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Max will affect the southern coast of
Mexico for the next day or two.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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