ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023 ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 108.6W ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued Tropical Storm Warnings north of Los Barriles to La Paz, and north of Todos Santos To Santa Fe. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Los Barriles to La Paz * North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional watches or warnings could be required today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 108.6 West. Norma is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower northward to northeastward motion is forecast through Saturday followed by a turn toward the north-northeast to northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, Norma is forecast to approach the southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, but Norma is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves near the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Baja California Sur by early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Baja California Sur on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Las Islas Marias today and tonight. RAINFALL: Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with local maxima of 15 inches through Sunday across the far southern portion of California Baja Sur. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur, and will spread northward along the coast of western Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN