ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS, FLASH FLOODING, AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 110.3W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Las Islas Marias. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo * North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe * Topolobampo to Mazatlan A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 110.3 West. Norma is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion should continue through this evening, followed by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast with a reduction in forward speed tonight through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Norma is expected to move over the southern portion of Baja California Sur within the hurricane warning area today. Norma is forecast to move toward the west coast of Mexico on Sunday night and move inland within the tropical storm watch area by early Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected during the next few days, but Norma is expected to remain a hurricane while it moves over the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). An observation station in Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur, recently reported sustained winds of 55 mph (89 km/h) and a gust to 72 mph (116 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Baja California Sur today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning areas in Baja California Sur. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the west coast of Mexico by early Sunday. RAINFALL: Norma will produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with maxima of 18 inches across the southern portion of Baja California Sur through Sunday and across much of Sinaloa through Monday. These rains will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is possible along the west coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm warning area. SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN