* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 06/17/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 28 32 41 51 64 75 84 94 99 103 104 107 113 117 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 28 32 41 51 64 75 84 94 99 103 104 107 113 117 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 28 32 37 44 52 63 72 78 81 82 87 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 4 3 2 6 10 4 8 1 4 9 10 14 12 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 10 8 4 6 6 -1 3 2 10 9 4 1 -1 0 4 7 SHEAR DIR 167 208 176 143 152 164 169 202 183 295 107 346 293 311 290 273 234 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.5 26.9 27.8 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 136 140 136 131 133 125 135 131 132 136 138 138 140 141 142 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 74 76 75 75 75 75 73 68 65 62 57 60 62 66 67 69 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 8 10 12 15 16 19 21 20 22 22 24 24 24 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR 37 35 38 48 60 63 79 79 74 55 38 15 2 3 18 1 23 200 MB DIV 103 77 51 32 29 23 -5 18 53 78 99 30 12 -16 43 59 116 700-850 TADV -6 -1 -1 -2 -1 3 4 4 5 2 2 0 1 0 6 5 14 LAND (KM) 956 1076 1224 1373 1531 1690 1613 1360 1112 948 864 836 882 863 775 745 696 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.3 11.5 11.4 11.5 11.6 12.0 12.3 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.2 26.4 27.9 29.5 31.1 34.4 37.8 41.3 44.4 46.9 48.7 49.8 50.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 15 16 16 17 17 17 14 11 7 5 6 9 12 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 24 28 17 19 22 8 39 11 24 45 48 33 28 27 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 16. 27. 37. 47. 55. 60. 64. 67. 67. 69. 68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. 5. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 15. 18. 17. 18. 16. 16. 19. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 21. 31. 44. 55. 64. 74. 79. 83. 84. 87. 93. 97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 25.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 06/17/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 16.0% 7.9% 2.6% 1.2% 3.9% 3.5% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% Consensus: 1.0% 6.1% 2.9% 0.9% 0.4% 1.3% 1.4% 1.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 06/17/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 24 28 32 41 51 64 75 84 94 99 103 104 107 113 117 18HR AGO 20 19 22 26 30 39 49 62 73 82 92 97 101 102 105 111 115 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 24 33 43 56 67 76 86 91 95 96 99 105 109 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT