* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902023 06/18/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 31 35 36 33 28 24 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 31 35 36 33 28 24 21 18 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 15 12 9 6 13 20 22 26 28 30 34 28 29 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -3 -4 -3 -1 0 12 10 14 10 10 12 13 11 13 9 SHEAR DIR 76 82 82 83 96 189 263 258 255 282 242 231 214 225 236 263 342 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.6 27.9 27.2 26.2 24.0 22.6 21.9 20.7 19.5 18.3 24.1 24.0 24.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 152 145 137 127 104 88 80 68 63 64 107 105 113 144 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.8 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 4 700-500 MB RH 56 61 61 62 62 59 51 49 43 38 33 26 21 23 25 22 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -27 -27 -30 -25 -8 -19 -40 -51 -76 -85 -73 -42 -3 53 12 4 200 MB DIV 34 8 3 27 28 22 25 11 -25 4 10 -2 9 24 36 -27 -8 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 3 2 5 10 22 25 18 -2 -43 -70 -31 -11 -9 30 LAND (KM) 985 1023 1052 1094 1145 1124 1143 1153 1152 1083 926 618 224 -25 -265 -587 -758 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.3 12.9 14.3 15.8 17.5 19.1 20.7 22.4 24.3 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.7 109.8 110.9 112.1 113.3 115.6 117.9 120.0 121.5 122.4 122.0 119.8 116.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 9 9 10 16 19 18 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 22 28 34 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 2. 9. 19. 26. 30. 31. 31. 30. 28. 28. 26. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 15. 16. 13. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.1 108.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902023 INVEST 06/18/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.88 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 6.0% 2.2% 0.9% 0.6% 2.2% 1.9% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902023 INVEST 06/18/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##