* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 06/18/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 60 73 82 91 96 100 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 60 73 82 91 96 100 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 35 42 53 63 72 80 85 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 6 8 3 7 7 8 6 9 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -3 0 2 6 8 8 -2 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 165 161 175 144 126 155 66 77 48 261 261 250 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.9 28.2 28.4 27.8 27.8 28.0 27.7 28.6 28.7 29.0 28.7 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 141 145 136 135 138 133 145 147 152 147 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 78 75 72 70 64 55 53 50 51 50 46 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 16 16 17 19 21 21 23 22 23 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 57 57 51 47 51 33 26 17 17 32 46 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 12 32 37 57 119 108 93 48 8 7 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -6 -9 -3 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1545 1497 1466 1453 1397 1158 979 852 795 763 500 256 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 16 15 14 13 12 10 11 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 18 30 27 16 19 21 19 51 47 54 32 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 16. 26. 35. 45. 52. 57. 62. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. -0. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 12. 10. 11. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 35. 48. 57. 66. 71. 75. 74. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 34.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 06/18/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.76 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.75 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 15.6% 10.4% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 15.3% 6.3% 1.1% 0.8% 4.7% 6.9% 5.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 9.7% 1.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.8% 1.3% Consensus: 1.6% 13.5% 6.0% 2.6% 0.3% 1.8% 7.1% 2.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 06/18/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 38 47 60 73 82 91 96 100 99 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 35 44 57 70 79 88 93 97 96 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 38 51 64 73 82 87 91 90 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 28 41 54 63 72 77 81 80 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT