* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932023 06/19/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 28 32 37 46 53 62 69 75 81 80 75 69 69 73 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 28 32 37 46 53 62 69 75 81 80 75 69 69 73 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 27 29 33 37 43 49 55 60 59 55 53 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 10 16 17 15 13 11 8 1 6 12 23 27 40 39 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 3 0 0 1 1 3 -1 1 -2 -2 3 7 0 -9 -9 SHEAR DIR 355 21 18 26 32 52 59 105 114 158 290 253 264 254 274 281 291 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.8 28.1 27.9 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.2 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 146 144 142 137 133 137 135 124 127 131 136 135 136 127 120 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 76 78 79 76 73 73 70 72 67 62 59 61 60 68 74 75 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 11 13 12 13 14 15 15 14 13 12 10 8 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 29 24 12 3 -9 -15 -8 5 2 -7 -36 -60 -84 -68 -55 1 200 MB DIV -4 7 4 23 32 48 39 30 -1 -9 -21 21 36 63 83 80 73 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 0 1 1 0 0 3 11 18 28 58 30 38 LAND (KM) 1250 1401 1512 1611 1591 1555 1538 1528 1560 1479 1346 1306 1255 1174 1189 1336 1503 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.6 10.1 10.5 11.1 12.0 13.1 14.8 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.5 29.0 30.1 31.1 32.0 33.6 35.1 36.7 38.4 40.4 43.0 45.7 48.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 10 10 9 8 8 8 10 12 15 16 16 16 15 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 33 35 31 24 15 17 38 22 6 15 25 23 18 17 7 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 430 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 17. 28. 38. 48. 56. 61. 65. 66. 66. 66. 64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -11. -15. -18. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 1. -3. -7. -7. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 17. 26. 34. 42. 49. 55. 61. 60. 55. 49. 49. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.5 27.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932023 INVEST 06/19/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 13.2% 7.8% 2.5% 1.3% 4.9% 5.9% 8.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 5.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 1.3% 0.1% Consensus: 1.4% 6.1% 3.0% 0.9% 0.5% 1.8% 2.4% 2.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932023 INVEST 06/19/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 24 28 32 37 46 53 62 69 75 81 80 75 69 69 73 18HR AGO 20 19 22 26 30 35 44 51 60 67 73 79 78 73 67 67 71 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 24 29 38 45 54 61 67 73 72 67 61 61 65 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT