* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932023 06/20/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 35 42 47 56 61 65 66 61 56 57 57 59 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 28 35 42 47 56 61 65 66 61 56 57 57 59 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 29 33 38 43 48 47 45 42 41 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 16 14 11 17 14 9 2 8 14 26 33 39 37 42 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 3 4 6 -1 3 0 1 -3 0 0 7 0 1 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 32 31 38 44 58 62 84 100 154 303 281 277 264 262 258 266 282 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 28.2 27.6 26.8 27.2 27.4 27.8 27.6 27.8 27.3 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 142 139 136 133 139 132 123 128 131 136 133 135 127 123 121 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 -54.6 -55.0 -55.5 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 5 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 77 75 73 71 71 70 70 65 61 60 60 62 69 75 74 72 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 14 15 14 14 14 13 13 11 10 12 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 33 20 8 0 -3 -8 6 20 14 8 -11 -32 -66 -60 -50 -26 -11 200 MB DIV 22 32 37 55 51 27 11 14 -1 -8 19 41 87 92 84 46 40 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -6 -3 1 0 2 0 0 4 9 17 25 31 27 12 -5 LAND (KM) 1540 1571 1536 1516 1495 1484 1491 1546 1424 1335 1328 1275 1230 1212 1322 1414 1427 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.6 8.8 9.1 9.3 9.8 10.3 11.1 12.1 13.4 15.2 17.2 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.3 31.5 32.5 33.4 34.2 35.7 37.3 39.1 41.1 43.5 45.9 48.3 50.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 8 8 9 10 12 14 15 16 15 13 9 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 34 30 22 17 14 18 37 16 6 17 26 19 16 17 8 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 17. 28. 38. 48. 55. 59. 63. 63. 62. 62. 60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -19. -23. -25. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -11. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 22. 27. 36. 41. 45. 46. 41. 36. 37. 37. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.5 30.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932023 INVEST 06/20/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 13.3% 8.0% 4.7% 2.4% 6.0% 6.1% 9.4% Bayesian: 0.8% 6.0% 2.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.9% 1.4% 0.1% Consensus: 2.2% 6.4% 3.4% 1.6% 0.9% 2.3% 2.5% 3.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932023 INVEST 06/20/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 26 28 35 42 47 56 61 65 66 61 56 57 57 59 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 25 32 39 44 53 58 62 63 58 53 54 54 56 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 27 34 39 48 53 57 58 53 48 49 49 51 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT