* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL032023 06/20/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 46 50 50 53 54 54 52 48 46 46 45 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 46 50 50 53 54 54 52 48 46 46 45 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 41 41 39 37 35 35 34 34 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 3 5 6 6 7 15 21 21 15 31 26 36 31 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 6 8 11 10 10 3 3 6 -3 -3 0 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 221 222 268 310 266 279 261 272 285 323 334 319 314 307 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.7 28.3 28.3 28.8 28.7 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 134 142 142 150 148 153 151 150 148 147 148 149 154 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 57 56 55 54 53 53 53 54 57 59 61 65 67 72 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 17 18 17 14 14 13 12 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 28 23 10 1 0 -3 10 19 28 34 43 43 50 66 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 73 115 107 49 -16 -13 0 -3 21 4 10 -2 13 26 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 -5 -8 -10 -4 -6 -3 -3 2 10 10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 999 923 861 824 799 532 245 85 139 333 327 250 191 224 226 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.6 16.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.3 47.7 49.1 50.5 51.9 54.5 57.2 60.0 62.4 65.1 68.0 70.4 72.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 14 13 13 14 13 13 14 13 10 10 12 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 13 36 59 47 52 31 48 43 42 53 57 46 49 50 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 14. 22. 29. 37. 43. 47. 50. 52. 51. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. -1. -4. -11. -16. -22. -27. -29. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -4. -5. -7. -11. -15. -20. -22. -22. -23. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 15. 18. 19. 19. 17. 13. 11. 11. 10. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.7 46.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032023 BRET 06/20/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.61 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.51 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 16.8% 11.1% 8.3% 6.2% 10.6% 11.5% 13.1% Logistic: 2.5% 5.3% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 1.0% 1.3% 1.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 5.0% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 1.2% 0.1% Consensus: 2.3% 9.0% 5.5% 3.1% 2.2% 4.2% 4.7% 4.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032023 BRET 06/20/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032023 BRET 06/20/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 43 46 50 50 53 54 54 52 48 46 46 45 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 43 47 47 50 51 51 49 45 43 43 42 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 41 41 44 45 45 43 39 37 37 36 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 32 32 35 36 36 34 30 28 28 27 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT