* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932023 06/20/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 31 36 42 48 56 59 61 61 60 58 56 57 62 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 31 36 42 48 56 59 61 61 60 58 56 57 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 38 43 49 53 54 52 49 47 47 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 13 17 17 11 5 7 7 14 19 28 21 25 22 28 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -5 -4 0 4 0 -1 0 2 3 2 4 -1 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 49 48 52 56 73 90 96 313 291 282 291 275 279 283 293 300 315 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 28.0 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.6 28.2 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 138 140 136 134 136 136 133 141 149 146 144 144 141 140 141 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 -53.9 -54.5 -54.4 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 68 68 68 65 66 64 59 61 59 60 63 66 64 62 57 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 7 5 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 5 0 -8 -8 0 7 1 1 -9 -23 -31 -42 -47 -46 -57 -68 -71 200 MB DIV 14 11 -4 -7 -29 -57 -45 -59 -3 34 55 47 36 15 14 7 6 700-850 TADV -1 1 0 -1 -1 -2 -5 -5 -2 2 4 11 12 0 2 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1525 1497 1485 1462 1451 1259 1043 915 862 879 633 515 386 404 501 581 629 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 15 14 11 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 31 32 19 14 27 17 31 42 42 22 35 33 34 25 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 16. 26. 36. 45. 52. 56. 60. 60. 59. 59. 57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -19. -19. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -16. -19. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 11. 17. 23. 31. 34. 36. 36. 35. 33. 31. 32. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 34.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932023 INVEST 06/20/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.64 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.72 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 14.7% 9.9% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 5.6% 3.3% 0.8% 0.3% 1.8% 1.9% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 7.7% 4.8% 2.5% 0.1% 0.7% 0.6% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932023 INVEST 06/20/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 29 31 36 42 48 56 59 61 61 60 58 56 57 62 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 35 41 47 55 58 60 60 59 57 55 56 61 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 36 42 50 53 55 55 54 52 50 51 56 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 28 34 42 45 47 47 46 44 42 43 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT