* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932023 06/21/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 44 54 59 62 61 60 61 59 58 58 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 44 54 59 62 61 60 61 59 58 58 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 31 35 40 46 51 52 51 49 48 46 47 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 15 17 15 9 7 9 11 21 23 26 22 26 25 36 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -5 -6 -4 0 0 -1 -2 -2 1 3 2 3 -1 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 54 64 56 68 79 59 357 325 275 289 273 287 273 288 302 325 314 SST (C) 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.7 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 136 140 138 131 135 136 134 141 144 147 144 148 142 141 145 142 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.9 -53.9 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -55.1 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 67 69 64 65 64 59 57 56 57 59 64 66 60 58 55 59 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 10 11 10 12 10 10 8 7 8 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -3 1 9 8 6 6 0 -8 -20 -28 -33 -34 -31 -32 -47 -31 200 MB DIV -13 -20 -12 -37 -43 -48 -44 -39 14 35 59 58 32 19 9 11 51 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -5 -4 0 0 1 7 4 5 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1482 1477 1485 1466 1407 1180 980 867 847 709 495 410 283 354 422 516 672 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 15 13 9 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 26 35 22 13 19 25 16 56 37 32 24 42 26 25 28 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 16. 26. 35. 44. 52. 56. 59. 60. 58. 58. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -6. -11. -16. -19. -21. -21. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -0. -2. -3. -7. -10. -10. -13. -16. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 19. 29. 34. 37. 36. 35. 36. 34. 33. 33. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.6 35.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932023 INVEST 06/21/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.71 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -25.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.03 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 13.8% 9.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 4.2% 2.5% 0.6% 0.3% 2.3% 3.0% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 7.4% 4.2% 2.4% 0.1% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932023 INVEST 06/21/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932023 INVEST 06/21/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 38 44 54 59 62 61 60 61 59 58 58 62 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 36 42 52 57 60 59 58 59 57 56 56 60 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 37 47 52 55 54 53 54 52 51 51 55 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 29 39 44 47 46 45 46 44 43 43 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT