* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 06/27/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 44 55 68 79 80 74 62 52 47 41 39 36 35 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 44 55 68 79 80 74 62 52 47 41 39 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 37 45 53 62 68 66 58 48 42 39 38 37 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 9 9 8 7 12 12 26 36 36 30 24 23 15 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 2 2 2 -7 0 -4 -6 0 1 5 -2 2 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 32 36 32 35 39 348 46 96 87 90 93 101 85 78 76 75 98 SST (C) 29.8 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.4 27.4 26.5 25.6 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 159 156 154 152 152 144 145 145 145 147 145 136 136 127 118 120 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -50.7 -51.1 -50.5 -51.0 -50.6 -51.2 -50.4 -51.2 -50.6 -51.2 -51.0 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 7 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 74 74 76 77 75 78 77 78 82 84 84 85 81 80 73 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 11 12 14 18 22 25 28 28 27 23 20 19 17 16 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR -7 3 15 14 15 36 49 64 78 97 91 96 103 108 98 100 97 200 MB DIV 64 42 40 64 74 58 32 54 66 117 112 124 66 40 26 -8 6 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -7 -13 -8 -9 -7 0 -2 0 0 6 3 0 -4 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 340 340 377 408 461 635 852 967 994 890 707 557 498 440 449 546 684 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.0 15.3 14.6 14.1 14.5 15.8 17.2 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.0 105.0 105.9 106.8 107.8 109.8 111.8 112.7 112.5 111.6 110.5 109.8 109.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 9 10 8 4 3 7 8 7 5 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 17 15 14 13 13 10 19 21 12 10 10 4 3 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 33. 36. 38. 39. 39. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. -1. -8. -14. -18. -19. -19. -17. -16. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 24. 27. 26. 20. 15. 12. 9. 7. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 19. 30. 43. 54. 55. 49. 37. 27. 22. 16. 14. 12. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 104.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 06/27/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.85 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.42 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.6% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.8% 15.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 10.6% 5.4% 2.2% 0.8% 3.6% 2.3% 4.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% Consensus: 0.6% 9.1% 6.5% 0.7% 0.3% 6.8% 6.0% 1.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 14.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 7.0% 12.0% 19.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 06/27/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##