* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 06/28/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 37 46 55 61 58 53 54 57 58 59 59 61 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 28 37 46 55 61 58 53 46 36 30 32 32 34 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 24 27 30 32 34 32 30 26 26 27 30 33 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 9 11 11 14 15 17 15 15 10 13 13 10 8 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 12 12 11 2 0 0 0 10 SHEAR DIR 9 4 349 7 34 25 18 34 28 7 330 22 39 98 124 165 130 SST (C) 29.3 29.6 30.1 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.5 30.4 29.7 28.8 28.6 29.4 29.3 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 165 168 169 169 168 167 166 169 167 160 151 150 159 158 133 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -51.2 -51.9 -51.0 -51.3 -50.5 -51.6 -51.2 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 7 6 7 6 8 6 9 7 10 7 10 6 6 700-500 MB RH 82 79 78 78 82 84 86 87 83 81 78 75 74 77 72 72 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 8 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 13 0 -13 -13 -9 -9 -4 7 5 19 43 57 76 99 94 73 200 MB DIV 88 62 36 20 41 71 95 115 122 115 85 71 86 25 42 12 -26 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -1 0 1 0 -1 -3 -4 2 -3 -4 0 -7 -5 -11 LAND (KM) 461 474 490 500 504 420 347 293 209 134 68 -11 -67 -79 23 203 113 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.2 11.9 12.9 13.9 15.0 16.1 17.1 18.1 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.9 93.6 94.3 94.9 95.6 96.9 98.3 99.5 100.5 101.3 101.8 102.4 103.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 5 5 6 8 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 20 24 30 37 35 38 38 31 27 20 12 11 23 15 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 7. 17. 27. 35. 39. 43. 46. 50. 53. 55. 58. 60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 3. -0. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 17. 26. 35. 41. 38. 33. 34. 37. 38. 39. 39. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.1 92.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 06/28/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.96 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 4.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.90 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.1% 64.2% 34.9% 23.6% 9.8% 36.1% 51.9% 60.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 12.1% 4.1% 1.2% 0.2% 7.0% 12.7% 17.7% Consensus: 4.8% 25.4% 13.0% 8.3% 3.3% 14.4% 21.5% 26.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 06/28/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##