* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 06/28/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 23 31 43 55 60 63 63 60 63 63 62 62 60 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 23 31 43 55 60 63 63 45 47 48 47 47 45 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 25 28 32 34 35 35 29 33 36 39 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 7 8 13 13 10 12 12 12 10 7 11 7 14 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 1 0 4 8 13 14 13 5 0 2 3 8 9 SHEAR DIR 343 334 8 30 38 25 34 39 20 48 52 49 61 160 169 190 133 SST (C) 29.9 30.4 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.3 29.9 29.4 29.0 29.6 29.5 27.7 27.2 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 169 171 171 170 168 168 166 168 163 158 153 159 158 140 136 83 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 6 7 6 8 8 9 7 9 8 8 6 5 1 700-500 MB RH 81 80 79 81 83 84 86 85 82 80 79 72 73 70 66 61 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 9 11 13 11 12 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 -3 -14 -17 -16 -29 -8 4 6 10 52 63 72 67 73 55 36 200 MB DIV 49 24 23 53 60 73 105 117 106 74 76 78 57 -2 4 -17 -19 700-850 TADV -3 -3 0 0 0 1 -2 -4 -5 -4 -2 0 -5 -4 -4 -10 -5 LAND (KM) 425 436 464 408 376 327 310 235 186 76 20 -24 65 158 132 26 164 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.3 13.1 13.9 15.1 16.3 17.7 18.9 20.1 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.8 94.6 95.4 96.2 96.9 98.4 99.9 101.3 102.6 103.6 104.5 105.2 106.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 7 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 18 25 32 39 39 35 38 32 26 21 17 15 26 19 3 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 5. 16. 25. 33. 37. 41. 44. 47. 51. 53. 56. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 7. 4. 5. 3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 3. 11. 23. 35. 40. 43. 43. 40. 43. 43. 42. 42. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.9 93.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 06/28/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.7 36.9 to 148.5 1.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 22.1% 7.7% 3.7% 1.0% 13.3% 28.8% 32.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 1.7% 10.0% Consensus: 0.7% 8.9% 2.8% 1.3% 0.4% 4.5% 10.2% 14.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 06/28/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##