* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BEATRIZ EP022023 06/30/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 46 52 60 67 69 68 65 61 60 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 46 52 58 65 67 66 63 59 58 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 45 44 53 56 57 56 55 53 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 11 14 13 10 10 3 3 4 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 -1 -2 -1 4 4 4 6 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 47 31 34 20 2 28 44 56 90 24 133 164 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.0 29.6 29.1 29.5 29.4 28.8 27.9 27.7 26.5 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 168 165 161 156 158 157 150 140 139 128 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.8 -50.8 -51.3 -50.6 -50.9 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 9 7 9 6 7 3 5 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 84 82 85 84 83 81 79 78 72 74 69 70 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 11 12 12 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 0 7 9 14 35 48 53 78 75 69 59 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 107 96 67 63 63 64 61 69 43 5 -3 -40 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 1 0 0 1 -4 0 0 1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 155 127 109 83 40 2 62 164 192 111 61 50 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.2 17.9 19.4 20.4 21.1 22.0 22.4 22.6 23.0 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.8 100.7 101.6 102.4 103.2 105.0 106.3 107.1 108.1 108.8 109.4 110.6 112.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 11 10 6 6 5 3 4 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 50 43 30 23 19 15 24 18 9 4 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 15. 17. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 17. 25. 32. 34. 33. 30. 26. 25. 22. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.3 99.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022023 BEATRIZ 06/30/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.86 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.46 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -10.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.92 -7.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.30 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 33.9% 20.4% 17.2% 11.8% 23.3% 21.4% 32.1% Logistic: 2.7% 14.3% 5.4% 2.3% 1.0% 7.7% 18.7% 4.7% Bayesian: 1.3% 16.7% 8.5% 3.9% 0.5% 1.8% 0.8% 5.3% Consensus: 5.8% 21.6% 11.4% 7.8% 4.4% 10.9% 13.6% 14.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 42.0% 22.0% 11.0% 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022023 BEATRIZ 06/30/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##