* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BEATRIZ EP022023 06/30/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 65 66 68 70 69 66 61 54 50 46 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 61 65 66 68 70 69 66 61 54 50 46 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 62 66 69 71 74 74 71 66 61 54 46 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 11 15 13 12 9 4 6 4 7 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 2 7 8 6 9 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 62 54 35 19 20 31 49 28 323 347 189 148 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.5 28.1 27.3 23.6 22.3 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 163 162 159 160 159 157 147 143 135 96 83 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -51.5 -52.0 -51.1 -51.4 -50.9 -51.0 -50.5 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 8 7 9 5 6 3 4 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 84 83 82 82 81 78 75 72 72 65 66 61 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 33 21 44 48 63 77 71 72 62 53 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 68 53 68 43 63 62 56 -27 -20 -13 -21 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -4 -3 -1 -4 -2 -4 -1 -3 -4 -12 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 110 75 35 27 22 106 240 144 83 67 150 200 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.6 21.5 22.0 22.3 22.5 22.7 22.9 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.9 102.8 103.6 104.5 105.3 106.7 107.9 108.9 109.6 110.5 111.6 112.6 113.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 8 6 4 4 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 21 19 17 18 21 13 6 4 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 11. 13. 15. 14. 11. 6. -1. -5. -9. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.7 101.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022023 BEATRIZ 06/30/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.63 12.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 10.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.41 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 -13.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 10.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 7.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 4.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 38.0% 60.8% 43.0% 33.5% 17.1% 31.8% 20.5% 9.6% Logistic: 16.5% 33.9% 16.4% 10.3% 6.0% 10.4% 8.8% 1.2% Bayesian: 8.4% 21.5% 10.7% 6.8% 2.1% 7.2% 2.0% 0.0% Consensus: 21.0% 38.7% 23.4% 16.9% 8.4% 16.5% 10.4% 3.6% DTOPS: 19.0% 15.0% 19.0% 20.0% 16.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022023 BEATRIZ 06/30/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##