* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BEATRIZ EP022023 06/30/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 86 87 88 86 80 72 64 56 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 82 86 87 88 86 80 72 64 56 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 83 87 89 90 89 83 76 69 63 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 19 18 13 10 8 6 3 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 4 -3 0 6 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 49 31 23 36 31 41 33 38 316 103 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.3 29.4 29.9 29.3 29.0 28.3 28.0 26.4 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 158 158 164 157 152 145 142 125 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -50.6 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 8 7 6 4 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 81 82 80 80 79 72 71 66 63 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 5 3 2 4 4 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 18 36 40 38 70 75 70 53 52 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 56 59 41 25 56 53 23 -14 12 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -2 0 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -4 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 63 23 15 20 57 175 207 151 72 86 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.9 21.6 21.8 22.3 22.6 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.6 104.4 105.2 106.0 107.3 108.4 109.2 109.9 110.8 111.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 7 5 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 19 16 17 25 15 10 5 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 12. 13. 11. 5. -3. -11. -19. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.5 102.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022023 BEATRIZ 06/30/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.44 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 6.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.33 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -7.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.92 -7.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 46.3% 35.7% 20.3% 18.0% 12.3% 19.6% 13.3% 6.5% Logistic: 12.8% 18.9% 6.3% 3.4% 2.8% 2.9% 1.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.3% 6.5% 2.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.1% 20.4% 9.7% 7.5% 5.2% 7.8% 4.9% 2.2% DTOPS: 18.0% 6.0% 11.0% 18.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022023 BEATRIZ 06/30/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##