* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BEATRIZ EP022023 07/01/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 49 49 49 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 49 49 49 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 48 47 45 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 12 16 13 7 9 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 5 2 -5 0 0 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 31 348 352 16 23 11 336 349 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.5 28.9 28.7 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 160 160 158 150 148 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 7 5 8 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 78 75 75 74 66 70 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 51 47 49 38 36 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 27 35 57 25 12 -24 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -5 -4 -2 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 16 61 150 191 202 125 72 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.6 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.5 22.7 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.3 106.9 107.4 107.9 108.5 109.0 109.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 6 5 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 23 19 16 13 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.0 105.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022023 BEATRIZ 07/01/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.66 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.33 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 19.4% 15.8% 13.0% 8.7% 18.3% 14.1% 7.7% Logistic: 0.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 7.0% 5.4% 4.4% 2.9% 6.2% 4.7% 2.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022023 BEATRIZ 07/01/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##