* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 07/11/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 60 72 85 91 96 96 93 88 82 77 75 72 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 60 72 85 91 96 96 93 88 82 77 75 72 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 45 53 65 77 87 90 86 78 68 60 54 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 15 15 14 6 6 10 5 6 1 2 2 3 5 4 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 2 4 3 2 -2 0 -2 -3 1 2 1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 21 17 18 14 26 347 25 3 327 326 271 200 201 264 187 172 204 SST (C) 29.8 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.0 28.2 28.4 27.5 26.5 25.5 24.8 24.1 24.1 24.0 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 159 155 155 152 150 146 148 150 140 130 120 113 106 106 105 112 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 74 76 77 79 79 81 84 83 79 77 73 67 61 57 53 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 13 14 19 21 25 27 30 30 28 25 22 19 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -12 0 -2 0 8 18 24 20 18 22 15 20 21 36 35 31 200 MB DIV 58 52 49 66 93 63 60 41 57 0 24 19 16 -16 -4 -14 -6 700-850 TADV 6 5 4 1 -1 0 -6 -5 -4 0 -1 0 7 6 5 0 4 LAND (KM) 773 833 877 940 1022 1143 1330 1464 1578 1714 1863 2005 2148 2147 1752 1381 1038 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 17 18 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 34 34 18 16 15 30 14 10 15 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 21. 30. 37. 41. 44. 46. 46. 45. 43. 42. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 7. 11. 19. 23. 28. 27. 23. 17. 13. 8. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 30. 42. 55. 61. 66. 66. 63. 58. 52. 47. 45. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.8 103.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 07/11/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.81 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.19 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 20.0% 15.5% 12.3% 0.0% 18.6% 16.0% 17.0% Logistic: 0.8% 9.4% 2.4% 1.3% 0.3% 5.6% 25.5% 50.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 2.6% 5.3% Consensus: 3.6% 11.5% 6.2% 4.6% 0.1% 8.2% 14.7% 24.2% DTOPS: 3.0% 16.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 11.0% 17.0% 21.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 07/11/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##