* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 07/13/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 47 47 44 42 41 38 37 35 35 36 41 47 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 47 47 44 42 41 38 37 35 35 36 41 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 35 34 34 33 32 32 31 31 31 30 30 30 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 35 29 23 19 19 19 10 8 8 14 18 27 32 30 26 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 1 0 0 0 1 4 1 2 -4 -1 -4 -8 -3 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 348 340 328 310 299 305 298 350 357 291 293 298 341 6 354 355 344 SST (C) 26.1 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.8 25.9 24.7 24.1 23.0 22.5 21.9 21.9 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.5 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 115 121 121 120 121 114 105 101 92 88 85 84 83 84 85 86 87 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.2 -55.2 -54.9 -54.9 -55.5 -55.8 -56.2 -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -56.2 -55.4 -55.5 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 56 58 58 58 56 55 57 59 50 49 52 54 54 57 57 56 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 18 20 23 22 21 20 20 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 35 39 51 62 74 66 29 -3 -34 -33 -23 -13 -13 -23 -37 -33 -59 200 MB DIV 8 -7 22 42 33 30 7 4 0 6 -20 -34 -56 -17 -20 -13 -20 700-850 TADV 7 9 10 8 6 10 24 19 17 13 5 -1 -1 5 5 10 11 LAND (KM) 1606 1704 1780 1839 1869 1813 1606 1365 1189 1166 1270 1407 1513 1582 1629 1698 1817 LAT (DEG N) 32.3 31.5 30.9 30.5 30.4 31.4 34.0 37.1 39.8 41.4 41.9 41.5 40.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.8 50.0 49.3 48.4 47.5 45.6 43.9 42.7 41.8 40.4 38.5 36.9 36.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 12 16 16 12 8 7 6 5 3 3 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 12 CX,CY: 8/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. -0. -1. -3. -1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 17. 14. 12. 11. 8. 7. 5. 5. 6. 11. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.3 50.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 07/13/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.25 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.96 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.39 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.30 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 12.7% 9.1% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 2.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.9% 3.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942023 INVEST 07/13/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 07/13/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 41 45 47 47 44 42 41 38 37 35 35 36 41 47 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 41 43 43 40 38 37 34 33 31 31 32 37 43 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 36 36 33 31 30 27 26 24 24 25 30 36 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 26 26 23 21 20 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT