* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/15/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 39 39 41 42 47 49 50 52 55 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 39 39 41 42 47 49 50 52 55 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 41 41 41 41 43 46 48 49 49 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 8 8 3 5 3 7 21 24 16 9 12 9 11 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 0 -1 -2 -3 -6 -6 -7 -2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 310 327 317 343 336 300 354 16 58 57 54 28 248 208 78 99 107 SST (C) 24.6 24.7 24.4 24.4 23.9 23.6 23.7 23.0 23.9 24.4 24.6 24.8 25.0 24.7 24.5 24.3 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 101 101 99 99 95 94 95 91 97 99 100 99 100 101 100 100 93 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.6 -55.6 -55.8 -55.8 -55.8 -56.4 -56.5 -56.4 -55.9 -55.6 -55.3 -55.5 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.6 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 38 37 38 39 41 46 47 45 46 42 44 44 47 41 42 39 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 20 20 18 18 18 17 16 17 17 19 19 17 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 19 1 -14 -30 -34 -45 -36 -16 11 35 48 55 40 32 6 -32 -81 200 MB DIV 4 -5 -4 1 17 -6 -35 -64 -46 -35 -5 -18 7 13 -9 -6 -10 700-850 TADV 13 16 8 9 10 3 0 -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 5 4 9 0 LAND (KM) 1209 1133 1058 999 942 953 1064 1237 1463 1616 1695 1753 1781 1709 1578 1414 1253 LAT (DEG N) 36.3 37.0 37.7 38.3 38.9 39.5 39.3 38.3 36.6 35.1 34.0 33.4 33.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.6 48.6 48.7 48.5 48.4 46.6 44.7 43.1 41.7 41.4 41.9 41.9 41.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 9 9 7 5 2 1 5 7 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -15. -16. -16. -14. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -13. -15. -12. -13. -16. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 7. 9. 10. 12. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 36.3 48.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/15/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.14 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 379.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.53 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 12.6% 9.1% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.0% 3.5% 2.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/15/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/15/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 39 39 41 42 47 49 50 52 55 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 38 38 40 41 46 48 49 51 54 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 36 36 36 35 35 37 38 43 45 46 48 51 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 30 30 30 29 29 31 32 37 39 40 42 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT