* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/17/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 46 42 40 38 37 33 30 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 50 46 42 40 38 37 33 30 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 50 46 43 41 37 34 31 28 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 8 9 9 9 15 16 20 30 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -3 -3 -1 2 3 6 6 5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 290 249 266 264 249 220 169 194 243 272 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 24.2 24.6 24.8 25.3 25.6 25.0 25.6 26.5 26.9 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 107 111 113 119 122 116 122 131 135 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 54 51 48 46 42 38 38 39 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 19 17 17 15 14 11 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 18 15 19 18 16 -5 -9 -14 -26 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 23 -14 -32 -7 19 53 24 0 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 3 2 2 5 7 8 -4 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1904 1714 1523 1337 1151 757 350 17 201 278 550 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.9 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.1 138.9 140.6 142.3 144.1 147.8 151.6 155.2 158.8 162.1 165.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 17 18 18 18 17 17 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -13. -18. -20. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -15. -17. -18. -22. -25. -28. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.3 137.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/17/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.17 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 403.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.4 49.8 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/17/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##