* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/18/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 35 32 30 28 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 35 32 30 28 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 37 35 32 29 27 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 13 14 16 20 34 41 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 13 9 8 5 8 4 3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 155 142 160 189 245 264 263 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.8 26.6 26.9 26.8 27.1 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 120 120 124 133 136 134 137 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 39 38 37 37 36 33 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 13 13 10 7 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 10 0 0 -7 -12 -22 -23 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 32 31 34 26 3 -2 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 8 5 7 15 -1 -3 -6 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 704 502 305 134 43 278 412 756 1120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.3 19.7 19.8 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 148.5 150.4 152.3 154.2 156.1 159.9 163.5 167.2 170.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 18 18 18 18 17 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 3 9 5 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.4 148.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/18/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 382.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.7 49.8 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/18/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##