* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/20/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 49 49 49 49 49 48 48 47 42 38 36 38 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 49 49 49 49 49 48 48 47 42 38 36 38 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 51 52 50 48 47 46 44 41 39 37 35 35 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 10 18 18 13 10 12 11 12 19 19 13 6 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -2 -6 -4 1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 6 30 41 42 59 65 75 80 32 22 12 47 50 170 230 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.1 24.9 24.7 24.5 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.0 19.4 20.3 20.1 20.5 19.3 18.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 104 103 101 100 97 97 99 98 77 80 79 81 78 77 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -54.5 -54.8 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -52.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 49 48 46 44 43 39 38 36 38 40 46 48 48 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 16 15 13 11 9 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 57 56 38 36 11 2 -20 -49 -88 -111 -99 -87 -70 -35 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 -30 -29 -15 0 -3 -14 8 -10 -7 -10 4 0 19 9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 3 -1 -1 4 8 10 10 5 15 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1778 1733 1690 1631 1573 1404 1218 1031 782 604 538 616 782 1040 1352 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.8 33.9 34.0 34.3 34.5 35.5 36.7 38.1 40.3 42.3 44.0 45.2 46.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.6 41.3 42.0 42.8 43.5 45.2 46.9 48.2 48.9 48.5 47.3 45.3 42.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 9 9 10 11 10 9 10 11 13 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -19. -21. -22. -18. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 16. 19. 20. 21. 20. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -19. -22. -25. -28. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. -3. -7. -9. -7. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 33.8 40.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/20/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.13 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.05 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 342.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 11.5% 8.5% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 5.6% 3.2% 1.4% 0.8% 4.3% 3.3% 1.9% Bayesian: 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.8% 3.9% 2.5% 0.3% 1.4% 1.1% 0.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/20/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/20/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 48 49 49 49 49 49 48 48 47 42 38 36 38 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 46 46 46 46 45 45 44 39 35 33 35 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 42 42 42 42 41 41 40 35 31 29 31 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 35 35 35 34 34 33 28 24 22 24 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT