* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 07/21/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 46 55 64 71 78 84 90 93 94 96 101 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 46 55 64 71 78 63 75 79 79 81 86 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 40 48 57 66 56 68 76 80 83 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 2 6 7 10 7 4 7 4 6 7 8 8 5 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 2 1 -2 -2 0 -3 0 -1 -1 1 1 7 2 1 SHEAR DIR 89 115 308 345 330 281 354 16 13 319 354 269 307 257 266 221 272 SST (C) 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.3 29.0 29.0 28.8 29.1 29.0 28.8 27.5 27.6 28.4 28.6 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 143 144 141 142 154 154 150 155 153 149 131 132 143 147 154 152 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 9 7 10 7 9 8 10 700-500 MB RH 60 62 63 62 61 65 67 71 69 73 69 73 72 76 74 71 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 11 10 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 9 18 20 14 24 45 52 57 46 47 49 42 54 65 69 63 200 MB DIV -16 -8 -6 -14 -20 -13 -6 29 3 39 33 3 20 50 73 23 0 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -4 -6 -7 -4 1 2 1 6 9 9 22 LAND (KM) 1511 1448 1371 1270 1158 915 680 516 449 250 2 -1 109 143 147 266 218 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.4 10.9 10.6 10.3 10.4 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.9 40.6 41.4 42.5 43.7 46.5 49.6 52.8 55.8 58.5 61.0 63.2 65.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 11 12 15 15 15 14 13 11 11 11 12 13 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 35 43 38 24 20 31 47 33 41 30 20 7 11 24 42 62 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 26. 36. 45. 53. 59. 64. 67. 67. 68. 68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -8. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 21. 30. 39. 46. 53. 59. 65. 68. 69. 71. 76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 39.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 07/21/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.78 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.74 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.08 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.77 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 16.3% 11.1% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 16.3% 16.5% 5.7% 1.4% 6.8% 6.1% 14.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 3.6% Consensus: 3.1% 11.5% 9.7% 4.3% 0.5% 2.5% 6.4% 6.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 07/21/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 07/21/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 38 46 55 64 71 78 63 75 79 79 81 86 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 36 44 53 62 69 76 61 73 77 77 79 84 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 39 48 57 64 71 56 68 72 72 74 79 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 31 40 49 56 63 48 60 64 64 66 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT