* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 07/22/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 42 49 56 62 68 71 73 75 77 82 90 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 42 49 56 62 68 71 73 75 77 82 90 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 41 47 55 62 68 71 75 79 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 3 5 11 8 8 10 6 6 10 16 14 12 11 13 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 0 -4 -2 2 -3 -2 -1 -2 -4 -1 4 4 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 178 331 337 270 287 338 310 342 331 346 282 316 289 306 250 282 276 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.4 28.4 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.8 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 141 143 146 144 141 145 145 137 141 142 143 143 150 154 152 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 7 8 8 7 10 8 11 8 11 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 59 61 64 67 67 70 68 70 67 72 69 72 69 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 27 19 21 22 28 36 46 40 58 57 54 67 67 69 50 42 200 MB DIV 9 -10 -22 -20 -14 -7 8 19 25 4 21 25 46 43 27 10 16 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 -1 -4 -6 -7 -5 -1 0 1 1 6 9 6 6 LAND (KM) 1479 1410 1314 1185 1054 806 657 299 100 131 154 58 30 209 345 370 51 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.3 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.7 41.6 42.8 44.3 46.0 49.6 53.4 57.1 60.5 63.8 66.7 69.4 71.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 13 16 17 18 19 17 17 15 14 13 12 12 13 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 41 38 24 21 22 37 31 30 18 9 25 19 21 22 35 49 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 25. 34. 44. 51. 57. 61. 64. 64. 66. 66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 17. 24. 31. 37. 43. 46. 48. 50. 52. 57. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 40.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 07/22/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.77 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.70 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.09 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.77 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 15.4% 10.4% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 6.3% 4.7% 0.7% 0.1% 2.0% 3.0% 9.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.3% Consensus: 1.9% 7.4% 5.3% 2.4% 0.1% 0.8% 5.2% 3.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 07/22/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 07/22/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 30 36 42 49 56 62 68 71 73 75 77 82 90 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 35 41 48 55 61 67 70 72 74 76 81 89 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 37 44 51 57 63 66 68 70 72 77 85 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 29 36 43 49 55 58 60 62 64 69 77 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT