* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 07/22/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 43 50 56 63 67 70 71 73 74 79 86 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 43 50 56 63 67 70 71 73 74 79 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 38 43 50 57 64 68 71 72 74 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 3 7 11 8 12 8 9 3 15 13 19 12 18 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -4 0 -1 -1 0 2 5 0 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 16 28 265 299 333 338 341 8 349 270 291 275 277 253 257 248 256 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 141 148 146 147 153 149 151 140 139 138 144 142 145 151 156 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 64 63 65 68 68 70 70 70 70 71 70 69 68 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 21 22 21 21 27 35 36 38 48 40 55 62 77 60 47 32 200 MB DIV -12 -23 -13 -18 -20 -6 6 24 3 21 6 27 30 39 1 -7 21 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -3 -5 -6 -7 -9 -2 3 -1 1 3 10 8 5 -1 LAND (KM) 1373 1283 1174 1036 912 696 582 254 93 149 198 85 134 344 332 252 -6 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.6 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.9 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.7 42.7 44.0 45.6 47.3 50.7 54.4 57.9 61.2 64.3 67.1 69.7 72.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 14 16 17 18 18 16 16 14 13 13 14 13 14 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 36 23 20 22 27 42 36 30 18 13 24 25 31 33 42 41 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 26. 35. 44. 52. 57. 62. 64. 64. 65. 65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 18. 25. 31. 38. 42. 45. 46. 48. 49. 54. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 41.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 07/22/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.06 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 15.0% 10.1% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 7.8% 4.9% 0.8% 0.2% 2.7% 5.1% 16.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.9% Consensus: 1.7% 8.6% 5.3% 2.4% 0.1% 1.0% 6.0% 6.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 07/22/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 07/22/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 30 36 43 50 56 63 67 70 71 73 74 79 75 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 35 42 49 55 62 66 69 70 72 73 78 74 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 38 45 51 58 62 65 66 68 69 74 70 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 30 37 43 50 54 57 58 60 61 66 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT