* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 07/23/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 34 39 44 46 46 45 47 46 48 49 54 61 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 34 39 44 46 46 45 47 46 48 49 54 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 38 40 41 42 44 45 47 51 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 13 17 13 18 14 20 21 27 20 27 20 25 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -1 -1 -5 -5 -3 2 -1 -3 0 -1 -3 -6 0 3 SHEAR DIR 327 360 337 331 332 339 325 287 287 294 300 288 295 294 302 303 337 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.6 29.3 29.6 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 155 155 154 154 152 144 144 144 140 141 140 148 159 165 174 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 7 8 9 8 8 8 10 9 10 9 11 8 700-500 MB RH 67 69 70 73 72 70 70 69 70 71 71 71 70 69 66 70 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 29 31 33 29 22 20 33 31 32 27 58 52 38 12 11 -22 200 MB DIV -36 -6 14 15 23 22 13 48 21 33 -4 8 20 -1 -17 -16 6 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -7 -9 -10 -9 -2 2 -1 3 3 2 -9 1 -11 -6 -2 LAND (KM) 915 819 720 622 591 498 160 34 339 371 275 196 112 138 272 155 -159 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.7 11.4 12.1 13.0 13.7 14.6 15.5 16.4 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.1 47.3 48.7 50.3 51.9 55.2 58.4 61.5 64.5 67.3 70.1 73.0 76.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 15 16 17 16 16 15 15 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 29 39 46 47 39 39 34 19 24 40 45 39 66 51 53 55 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 16. 26. 35. 44. 51. 55. 59. 61. 60. 61. 60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -13. -19. -23. -27. -28. -29. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 21. 21. 20. 22. 21. 23. 24. 29. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 46.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 07/23/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.86 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 16.8% 11.2% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 13.2% 6.5% 1.5% 0.8% 4.2% 6.7% 26.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 8.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 2.9% Consensus: 2.1% 12.8% 6.3% 3.0% 0.3% 1.6% 6.7% 9.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 07/23/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 07/23/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 30 34 39 44 46 46 45 47 46 48 49 54 41 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 33 38 43 45 45 44 46 45 47 48 53 40 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 34 39 41 41 40 42 41 43 44 49 36 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 26 31 33 33 32 34 33 35 36 41 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT