* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 07/23/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 35 40 44 44 43 41 42 42 45 47 51 58 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 35 40 43 44 43 41 42 42 44 46 50 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 36 37 38 38 38 39 42 45 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 11 18 17 18 16 20 19 26 27 25 23 22 20 22 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 -2 -5 -5 -4 -1 2 -2 -3 0 -2 -4 -4 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 344 323 318 333 340 324 314 281 289 290 305 291 303 295 290 296 292 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.5 29.2 29.7 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 154 152 152 151 146 143 141 142 141 143 146 157 165 167 167 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 11 700-500 MB RH 67 68 73 71 69 69 68 68 70 73 70 71 69 70 69 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 29 32 30 29 18 25 27 28 32 39 64 45 30 9 3 -26 200 MB DIV -7 12 24 35 38 28 28 42 33 26 17 26 12 -4 -8 25 10 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -8 -9 -10 -5 0 0 1 3 1 -2 -4 -4 -13 0 -7 LAND (KM) 835 737 647 611 612 316 45 181 368 320 152 115 14 163 295 186 -81 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.9 11.3 11.9 12.8 13.6 14.5 15.3 16.3 17.0 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.3 48.7 50.2 51.9 53.5 56.8 59.9 62.9 65.8 68.4 71.1 73.9 77.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 16 17 16 17 15 15 14 14 13 15 15 14 14 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 42 46 39 37 38 24 20 31 55 42 37 63 52 65 86 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 25. 34. 43. 50. 54. 58. 59. 59. 59. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -4. -9. -16. -23. -27. -30. -31. -31. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 15. 19. 19. 18. 16. 17. 17. 20. 22. 26. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 47.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 07/23/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.86 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 17.1% 11.4% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 31.1% 18.1% 8.6% 6.0% 15.2% 12.6% 46.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 9.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.9% 11.9% Consensus: 3.0% 19.1% 10.4% 5.3% 2.0% 5.3% 8.8% 19.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 07/23/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 07/23/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 30 35 40 43 44 43 41 42 42 44 46 50 42 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 34 39 42 43 42 40 41 41 43 45 49 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 35 38 39 38 36 37 37 39 41 45 37 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 27 30 31 30 28 29 29 31 33 37 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT