* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 07/29/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 25 28 32 37 42 47 53 59 66 71 71 71 77 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 25 28 32 37 42 47 53 59 66 71 71 71 77 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 25 28 32 37 45 53 58 61 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 25 22 16 20 16 11 4 4 3 6 4 6 8 23 23 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -1 -2 0 0 5 4 2 0 0 1 -1 0 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 28 27 31 24 18 12 344 35 225 155 217 270 258 217 219 230 252 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.7 28.3 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 138 135 135 133 141 137 142 145 142 146 146 144 138 131 126 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -54.4 -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 65 66 65 61 55 55 48 46 45 46 52 45 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 12 14 13 13 16 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -11 -22 -25 -25 -30 -23 -35 -18 -12 -14 -67 -73 -62 -83 -124 -155 200 MB DIV 33 22 9 -9 -21 11 57 22 5 10 3 11 26 48 20 -12 -59 700-850 TADV -2 2 0 0 0 5 13 13 1 0 0 -3 2 1 15 9 6 LAND (KM) 1555 1498 1492 1496 1488 1368 1314 1244 1212 1170 1116 1056 1043 1155 1371 1578 1656 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.7 16.5 17.2 18.9 20.5 21.8 22.8 23.5 24.1 24.7 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.6 43.0 44.1 45.1 46.2 48.1 49.6 50.7 51.5 52.4 53.5 54.9 56.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 12 10 7 5 6 7 7 8 10 9 9 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 22 43 42 25 16 33 29 31 33 30 27 26 20 15 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 27. 33. 38. 40. 42. 42. 41. 40. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -4. -2. -4. -6. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 17. 22. 27. 33. 39. 46. 51. 51. 51. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.4 41.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 07/29/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 6.9% 4.0% 2.4% 1.4% 5.6% 5.3% 10.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% Consensus: 0.9% 3.8% 1.6% 0.8% 0.5% 1.9% 2.1% 3.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 07/29/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 07/29/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 24 25 28 32 37 42 47 53 59 66 71 71 71 77 18HR AGO 20 19 21 22 23 26 30 35 40 45 51 57 64 69 69 69 75 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 21 25 30 35 40 46 52 59 64 64 64 70 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT