* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 07/30/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 35 35 35 36 33 35 40 46 45 45 49 58 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 35 35 35 36 33 35 40 46 45 45 49 58 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 29 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 18 22 28 42 50 52 52 52 31 7 30 24 24 36 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 12 9 8 14 1 4 7 11 8 9 7 -1 0 0 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 149 167 192 190 187 210 226 244 271 296 312 211 199 196 207 209 224 SST (C) 30.1 28.8 28.3 28.1 28.2 27.7 21.5 16.9 17.9 16.8 18.2 21.1 21.7 22.8 21.6 20.3 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 173 151 145 143 145 139 92 78 80 77 79 84 85 90 84 81 82 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.8 -53.2 -54.1 -54.6 -55.3 -55.2 -54.0 -53.1 -52.3 -51.1 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -1.1 -1.3 -0.8 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 50 51 53 49 51 59 63 54 50 47 42 38 40 43 40 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 11 15 16 14 14 14 12 10 11 12 12 10 10 12 6 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -1 1 9 5 -2 -19 -38 -83 -103 -143 -121 -129 -154 -49 11 8 200 MB DIV 11 20 12 41 68 38 65 13 -43 -56 -70 -78 -3 9 33 24 3 700-850 TADV 0 -8 -2 -1 3 13 8 24 43 49 7 -17 12 13 0 -24 -37 LAND (KM) 154 259 393 599 656 620 349 571 1227 1231 947 721 894 1104 1147 921 631 LAT (DEG N) 33.6 34.0 34.6 35.5 36.6 39.6 43.5 47.1 49.3 49.1 46.2 42.7 40.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.6 73.7 71.6 69.1 66.1 59.8 53.0 45.1 36.2 27.1 20.3 18.1 19.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 20 24 28 30 33 33 31 28 24 14 10 9 8 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 69 27 22 21 34 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 15 CX,CY: 14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 5. 6. 8. 11. 9. 9. 9. 10. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 13. 15. 19. 20. 19. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 0. -3. -2. -1. -3. -6. -7. -5. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 8. 10. 15. 21. 20. 20. 24. 33. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 33.6 75.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 07/30/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.18 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.72 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 11.1% 7.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 1.7% 2.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.3% 3.3% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 07/30/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 07/30/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 33 35 35 35 36 33 35 40 46 45 45 49 58 52 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 32 32 32 33 30 32 37 43 42 42 46 55 49 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 27 27 27 28 25 27 32 38 37 37 41 50 44 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 17 17 18 15 17 22 28 27 27 31 40 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT