* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 07/31/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 28 30 30 28 23 20 22 25 23 25 27 30 34 35 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 28 30 30 28 23 20 22 25 23 25 27 30 34 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 22 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 21 28 37 46 48 50 51 42 7 9 22 17 24 37 43 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 14 16 6 1 7 8 10 7 4 5 4 2 -1 -5 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 206 201 196 196 212 229 249 272 304 319 152 172 187 215 229 234 248 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.4 27.6 25.1 19.4 18.4 18.4 18.2 20.4 22.2 23.2 22.8 22.0 21.4 22.2 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 148 138 113 84 81 81 79 83 88 94 90 86 84 88 92 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -54.3 -54.7 -53.9 -53.1 -52.5 -51.3 -50.7 -51.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -0.7 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 700-500 MB RH 47 47 47 46 51 58 57 50 46 43 39 42 50 49 41 30 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 15 16 15 15 15 14 11 9 8 8 4 6 6 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 2 8 0 4 0 -9 -54 -72 -107 -120 -132 -158 -152 -36 -20 -5 0 200 MB DIV 10 36 62 51 34 43 -9 -38 -61 -39 -28 8 23 29 16 -7 -62 700-850 TADV -23 7 2 10 23 11 24 23 2 -14 -5 8 0 -5 -14 -25 -21 LAND (KM) 482 609 637 609 556 300 815 1493 1177 888 976 1228 1435 1413 1192 1008 903 LAT (DEG N) 35.5 36.5 37.7 39.1 40.9 44.7 47.6 48.5 46.8 43.3 40.7 40.0 40.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.4 67.7 64.6 61.2 57.8 50.4 41.8 32.6 24.4 20.2 20.7 23.7 26.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 26 29 31 32 33 32 30 27 18 12 12 8 7 10 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 22 35 32 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 21 CX,CY: 19/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 5. 4. 4. 6. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 14. 14. 13. 15. 16. 19. 20. 19. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. -4. -8. -10. -12. -18. -17. -17. -19. -22. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -10. -10. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 3. -2. -5. -3. 0. -2. -0. 2. 5. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 35.5 70.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 07/31/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 48.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 07/31/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 07/31/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 28 30 30 28 23 20 22 25 23 25 27 30 34 35 18HR AGO 25 24 26 26 28 28 26 21 18 20 23 21 23 25 28 32 33 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 23 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT