* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/01/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 70 77 82 90 95 95 91 90 91 91 91 89 89 87 85 V (KT) LAND 55 63 70 77 82 90 95 95 91 90 91 91 91 89 89 87 85 V (KT) LGEM 55 64 72 79 85 95 101 101 99 97 99 98 97 95 90 83 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 1 4 6 12 15 13 11 9 3 3 4 6 5 4 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 3 1 -1 -3 -4 -3 0 -2 0 4 2 3 5 7 9 SHEAR DIR 130 170 83 54 34 71 74 89 83 103 181 152 21 106 161 183 258 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.3 27.8 26.7 27.6 26.9 26.8 27.3 26.9 27.0 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 160 158 157 155 149 144 133 142 135 133 139 135 136 137 135 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 59 58 57 58 59 59 60 60 62 64 61 53 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 13 13 14 16 16 16 17 19 19 19 17 17 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 4 6 6 9 15 24 40 60 74 82 68 67 71 80 84 74 34 200 MB DIV 9 2 -1 -6 8 -1 -6 -19 -14 41 0 16 -19 -22 -23 -18 -28 700-850 TADV 4 0 -4 -2 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -4 -4 -1 -1 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 594 717 803 866 948 1184 1455 1708 1988 2255 2418 2129 1883 1599 1279 1025 864 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.2 14.6 14.1 13.5 13.1 12.9 12.6 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.8 112.2 113.6 115.0 117.8 120.8 123.8 126.8 130.0 133.2 136.2 138.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 16 15 14 14 15 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 23 18 17 17 13 12 2 6 4 7 21 5 5 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 9. 7. 6. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 22. 27. 35. 40. 40. 36. 35. 36. 36. 36. 34. 34. 32. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.1 109.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/01/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.62 18.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 16.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.73 15.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 305.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 -13.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 16.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 11.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 5.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 59% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 77% is 5.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 76% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 74% is 12.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 12.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 68% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 58.6% 77.3% 76.2% 74.1% 54.3% 68.1% 45.9% 10.8% Logistic: 53.8% 62.6% 52.9% 39.6% 28.7% 15.5% 5.1% 8.6% Bayesian: 19.0% 50.8% 6.8% 3.6% 11.5% 4.0% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 43.8% 63.6% 45.3% 39.1% 31.5% 29.2% 17.1% 6.5% DTOPS: 59.0% 79.0% 75.0% 73.0% 59.0% 74.0% 56.0% 23.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/01/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##