* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 08/02/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 35 40 44 47 45 41 41 42 43 47 52 54 71 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 35 40 44 47 45 41 41 42 43 47 52 54 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 28 29 30 33 35 35 33 33 33 33 35 37 41 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 23 19 14 13 9 20 18 10 27 29 35 28 37 44 55 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 3 0 3 0 1 -1 -1 0 0 -6 -1 1 2 7 9 SHEAR DIR 296 306 322 314 284 245 235 244 239 210 225 240 259 267 256 257 270 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 27.9 27.2 27.0 24.9 25.0 22.2 19.7 17.6 16.0 16.4 16.3 17.2 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 145 148 137 130 127 107 107 90 80 75 73 75 76 78 73 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 -55.5 -56.4 -56.7 -55.3 -53.4 -50.7 -48.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 0.8 0.9 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 52 56 61 65 70 70 64 55 48 47 48 56 57 55 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 4 6 9 11 12 12 10 10 9 8 9 10 9 17 850 MB ENV VOR -58 -28 10 25 20 16 5 17 13 -14 -46 -66 -31 -25 -48 -12 0 200 MB DIV 21 56 69 66 42 71 40 65 26 49 25 -2 17 8 22 8 11 700-850 TADV 8 8 6 12 19 26 33 12 12 3 -4 -11 -5 -6 -31 -18 14 LAND (KM) 1171 1209 1306 1431 1500 1287 1024 855 816 909 1108 1388 1351 893 384 43 -117 LAT (DEG N) 27.9 28.5 29.4 30.4 31.7 34.7 37.5 39.9 42.2 44.6 46.9 48.8 49.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.3 58.9 58.8 58.2 57.3 54.9 51.5 48.0 44.9 41.6 38.0 34.0 29.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 10 13 16 20 19 17 16 17 16 16 18 24 27 30 31 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 20 19 11 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 825 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 21. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 14. 17. 15. 11. 11. 12. 13. 17. 22. 24. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.9 58.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 08/02/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.36 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.95 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.59 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 14.0% 9.5% 7.9% 5.5% 9.4% 9.0% 10.4% Logistic: 1.1% 2.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 5.7% 3.6% 2.9% 1.9% 3.9% 3.3% 3.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 08/02/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 08/02/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 35 40 44 47 45 41 41 42 43 47 52 54 50 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 34 39 43 46 44 40 40 41 42 46 51 53 49 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 30 35 39 42 40 36 36 37 38 42 47 49 45 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 32 35 33 29 29 30 31 35 40 42 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT