* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/04/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 112 106 102 97 95 97 94 91 85 82 80 79 80 82 84 V (KT) LAND 115 115 112 106 102 97 95 97 94 91 85 82 80 79 80 82 84 V (KT) LGEM 115 114 109 104 99 94 93 93 92 91 89 88 85 81 77 75 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 12 13 11 5 3 1 3 9 8 11 9 13 11 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 3 0 -1 2 0 1 -1 -1 0 3 4 0 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 98 89 85 98 117 123 102 317 313 303 282 294 274 288 273 274 243 SST (C) 28.3 27.7 27.1 27.1 27.4 26.8 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 27.0 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.6 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 143 137 137 140 134 136 135 134 135 138 134 136 137 138 143 147 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 60 62 62 63 65 65 65 66 63 57 53 51 57 63 65 62 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 18 15 17 17 17 19 17 17 15 14 14 15 14 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 82 85 93 105 111 90 91 93 103 101 81 74 67 50 31 18 1 200 MB DIV 17 27 59 61 51 63 35 14 34 0 1 -9 -12 -21 4 -16 15 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -6 -5 -9 -1 0 -4 -5 -2 1 4 9 10 9 10 16 LAND (KM) 1745 1874 2001 2125 2254 2376 2066 1727 1435 1123 836 702 782 1006 1131 1331 1588 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.0 13.8 13.7 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.8 12.5 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.3 125.8 127.3 128.9 130.4 133.5 136.7 140.2 143.5 147.3 151.6 155.7 159.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 15 17 17 17 20 20 19 18 16 16 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 16 10 3 3 5 4 7 13 2 4 6 2 9 8 24 37 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. -30. -32. -35. -36. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -7. -2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 1. 1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -3. -9. -13. -18. -20. -18. -21. -24. -30. -33. -35. -36. -35. -33. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.1 124.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/04/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 604.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.24 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 2.3% 1.9% 1.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/04/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##