* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/05/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 82 79 79 79 81 81 80 79 78 78 78 77 78 77 78 V (KT) LAND 90 86 82 79 79 79 81 81 80 79 78 78 78 77 78 77 78 V (KT) LGEM 90 85 81 78 76 74 73 73 73 74 76 77 77 75 70 61 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 1 1 4 4 9 8 10 8 15 19 25 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 1 0 5 6 2 3 0 2 0 2 0 -2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 91 118 131 127 131 101 45 263 300 286 295 287 277 270 253 251 262 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.6 26.5 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.4 26.7 26.7 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 132 131 134 133 133 131 134 134 138 136 137 141 146 150 154 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 64 62 62 58 54 49 46 47 53 53 52 53 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 19 18 18 19 18 17 15 15 14 14 13 12 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 107 120 112 99 93 87 93 100 92 94 79 77 66 41 26 8 -17 200 MB DIV 60 60 54 50 52 14 18 9 -9 -25 -23 0 -2 -19 0 11 12 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -4 0 2 -3 -4 -4 1 1 9 9 14 11 14 16 20 LAND (KM) 2154 2277 2401 2304 2135 1790 1464 1148 877 715 780 983 1093 1269 1514 1797 2111 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.1 12.9 12.8 12.6 12.5 12.7 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.3 130.9 132.4 134.1 135.8 139.3 142.8 146.5 150.4 154.4 158.6 162.3 165.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 17 17 17 18 19 19 20 20 17 16 16 17 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 2 3 8 6 2 2 2 2 18 6 22 21 44 56 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -0. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -11. -11. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. -13. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 13.7 129.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/05/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.06 0.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.48 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 443.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.42 -2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.7 49.8 to 0.0 0.97 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 12.8% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.8% 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/05/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##