* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/05/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 94 93 91 86 82 79 77 75 72 72 72 71 70 70 69 V (KT) LAND 95 95 94 93 91 86 82 79 77 75 72 72 72 71 70 70 69 V (KT) LGEM 95 94 93 90 87 81 78 77 75 73 71 71 71 68 60 50 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 3 1 4 6 5 9 7 11 10 15 20 26 32 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 8 7 3 3 7 2 6 1 0 -2 -2 4 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 119 132 147 188 323 348 281 278 294 289 282 291 269 253 237 232 242 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.8 26.6 26.8 26.8 26.5 26.8 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.5 28.2 28.6 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 134 132 134 135 132 135 132 135 137 139 142 148 153 156 154 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 65 61 60 59 62 57 52 47 43 44 48 49 50 53 55 58 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 19 20 17 16 16 15 15 14 13 12 11 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 116 99 95 96 85 89 96 93 105 90 75 74 59 43 9 -10 -25 200 MB DIV 50 40 40 32 17 28 41 10 -5 -15 -33 -14 -15 25 17 1 14 700-850 TADV -5 0 0 -3 -9 -4 0 -2 -1 10 10 12 8 10 10 10 3 LAND (KM) 2425 2297 2125 1966 1809 1481 1155 896 723 775 983 1153 1354 1600 1860 2125 2416 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.3 13.1 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.5 12.7 13.0 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.5 134.2 135.9 137.5 139.2 142.8 146.6 150.4 154.6 158.5 162.3 166.0 169.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 16 17 18 19 20 20 19 19 18 18 16 15 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 2 4 7 3 8 2 2 3 1 14 6 22 34 44 54 37 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. -23. -23. -23. -24. -25. -25. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 13.4 132.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/05/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.01 0.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.48 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 545.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.30 -2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.5 49.8 to 0.0 0.83 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 16.6% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 10.1% 10.1% 5.4% 1.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 8.9% 8.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/05/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##