* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/09/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 114 113 110 106 100 93 84 79 71 71 71 71 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 115 114 113 110 106 100 93 84 79 71 71 71 71 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 113 111 108 105 101 97 89 81 73 63 55 50 48 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 4 1 3 5 4 9 12 24 20 22 15 7 6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 0 0 4 3 8 1 3 1 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 347 344 276 269 304 195 257 237 270 263 262 240 251 81 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 28.1 28.6 28.3 28.6 28.9 28.6 28.9 29.1 28.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 143 144 144 147 152 149 152 154 151 154 156 149 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 9 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 43 44 43 40 42 42 47 53 57 63 69 71 68 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 17 15 16 15 13 12 12 9 9 7 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 79 82 75 71 55 35 9 -3 -14 -18 -16 -18 -36 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 3 -14 4 10 27 16 -16 4 54 11 6 -20 -36 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 4 4 6 7 7 4 2 4 0 2 4 2 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1256 1322 1416 1514 1627 1865 2093 2322 2591 2820 2707 2479 2250 2134 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.9 15.1 16.1 16.9 17.5 17.9 18.5 19.4 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 165.1 167.1 169.0 170.8 172.5 175.8 178.8 181.5 184.4 186.8 188.9 191.1 193.4 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 18 18 17 16 15 14 13 11 10 12 10 9 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 26 30 51 48 44 38 27 38 61 45 53 51 28 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -17. -23. -28. -31. -32. -35. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -12. -11. -12. -11. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -15. -22. -31. -36. -44. -44. -44. -44. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 11.5 165.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/09/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1019.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.51 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 2.1% 2.8% 2.9% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/09/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##