* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982023 08/11/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 34 42 52 62 70 77 79 83 84 83 82 82 79 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 34 42 52 62 70 77 79 83 84 83 82 82 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 28 29 34 40 47 55 62 68 74 76 75 72 68 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 9 14 15 13 14 11 3 0 6 9 4 4 1 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 6 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 2 3 2 -1 0 2 7 7 SHEAR DIR 19 47 54 55 37 47 31 34 26 358 293 155 141 149 142 2 261 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.0 29.2 28.9 28.5 27.7 26.5 24.9 24.5 23.7 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 162 160 159 158 153 156 153 149 141 129 113 110 102 98 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 70 73 72 73 72 70 69 67 62 58 57 55 49 42 36 31 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 8 10 12 13 16 16 18 18 18 18 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -10 -11 -6 -5 -15 -6 14 17 22 15 8 15 19 23 26 27 200 MB DIV 61 56 57 43 22 42 32 19 26 1 -3 -9 -27 -28 -21 -34 -14 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -1 -2 -7 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 3 10 LAND (KM) 948 960 987 1018 1036 1104 1145 1173 1204 1259 1304 1366 1479 1651 1853 2113 1899 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.3 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.4 15.0 15.8 16.7 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.6 109.5 110.5 111.3 112.9 114.4 115.8 117.1 118.6 120.1 122.0 124.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 8 9 11 12 13 15 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 21 20 23 50 30 16 18 16 13 6 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 8. 17. 25. 32. 36. 40. 43. 45. 47. 46. 46. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 11. 15. 14. 16. 14. 13. 11. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 17. 27. 37. 45. 52. 54. 58. 59. 58. 57. 57. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.9 107.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982023 INVEST 08/11/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.91 8.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.40 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.4% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 15.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 25.2% 10.9% 6.1% 0.9% 8.8% 6.5% 19.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.7% 0.4% Consensus: 1.6% 16.3% 9.0% 2.1% 0.3% 9.2% 8.0% 6.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982023 INVEST 08/11/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##