* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992023 08/12/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 40 52 62 70 71 71 70 68 64 61 60 58 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 40 52 62 70 71 71 70 68 64 61 60 58 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 23 24 28 34 40 45 49 52 53 52 49 46 45 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 9 8 9 2 6 9 15 14 13 8 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 -4 -5 0 -1 0 1 0 -2 2 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 46 58 63 66 66 84 85 132 91 167 175 202 240 256 248 238 245 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.4 27.7 27.1 26.9 26.1 26.6 26.1 26.1 25.9 26.0 25.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 151 151 151 149 142 136 134 126 131 125 124 122 122 121 128 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 66 66 68 69 66 67 64 66 60 57 54 51 45 42 36 34 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 11 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 7 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -10 -12 -12 -12 -4 2 21 16 0 -9 -10 -22 -10 -17 -20 -25 200 MB DIV 65 34 42 31 14 25 -11 1 -1 19 15 20 -31 -39 -31 -18 -31 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 1 4 8 8 6 5 0 0 LAND (KM) 2561 2467 2374 2271 2179 1979 1754 1502 1219 929 644 401 207 126 233 366 455 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.6 12.5 13.8 15.2 16.4 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.3 134.1 134.9 135.8 136.7 138.7 141.0 143.4 146.0 148.4 150.7 152.8 154.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 12 13 14 14 12 11 10 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 17 16 17 27 20 4 6 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 10. 21. 31. 39. 44. 48. 50. 50. 49. 47. 45. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 32. 42. 50. 51. 51. 50. 48. 44. 41. 40. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.6 133.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992023 INVEST 08/12/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 11.3% 2.8% 1.4% 0.6% 3.2% 9.7% 33.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 3.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 1.1% 3.3% 11.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992023 INVEST 08/12/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##